# AD Market Dynamics **Researcher Agent Output • Independent Analysis • January 14, 2026** ## Dupixent Patients Don't Switch. They Disappear. *What 52,000 discontinuers reveal about systemic market exit.* ### Hero metrics | Value | Label | Detail | |-------|--------|--------| | 12.8% | Competitor Capture | From Dupixent discontinuers | | 85–88% | Exit Rate | Regardless of time on therapy | | 27% | Never Escalate | Stay on topicals only | ## The Conventional View A common market assumption: Dupixent owns the space, but patients fail, and when they do, they're available for capture. Many playbooks focus on exactly this—position as the switch option, target post-Dupixent patients, win the second line. We tested this assumption against 52,000 systemic AD discontinuers. Here's what we found. ## Where Dupixent Discontinuers Actually Go *N = 30,826 Dupixent discontinuers with 12+ months observation window.* | Discontinuer Source | To Other Biologic | To JAKi | Exited Market | |--------------------|-------------------|---------|---------------| | Dupixent | 7.0% | 5.8% | 80% | | Nemluvio | 18% | 8% | 67% | | Ebglyss | 17% | 9% | 68% | *Nemluvio and Ebglyss cohorts reflect early post-launch observation; interpret directionally.* **The finding:** When patients leave Dupixent, only 12.8% go to a competitor. The rest—80%—exit the systemic market entirely. The "Dupixent failure" opportunity is a fraction of what the market assumes. --- ## Is Exit Actually Remission? The obvious counterargument: patients who stop Dupixent are in remission. They achieved control and appropriately discontinued. If true, "exit" is a success story, not market leakage. We tested this by stratifying exit rates by time on therapy. If remission drove exits, we'd expect long-duration patients (who achieved control) to exit at higher rates than short-duration patients (who failed quickly). | Time on Therapy | Discontinuers | Switched | Exited | |-----------------|---------------|----------|--------| | <3 months | 21,965 | 12% | 88% | | 3–12 months | 17,770 | 14% | 86% | | 12+ months | 12,201 | 12% | 88% | **The pattern:** Exit rates are flat at 85–88% regardless of duration. Someone who quit after 2 months exits at the same rate as someone who quit after 18 months. Remission alone doesn't explain this pattern—the flat rate across durations suggests disengagement may be a contributing factor. ## They're Still in Healthcare. Just Not Treating AD. We checked whether "exiters" were truly lost—changed insurance, moved, passed away—or simply stopped managing their AD. | Metric | Value | Notes | |--------|-------|-------| | Still in healthcare system | 76% | Any medical or pharmacy claim in months 6–12 | | Still seeing a doctor for AD | 25% | L20.x diagnosis in months 6–12 | Three-quarters of "exiters" are still getting healthcare. They're filling prescriptions, seeing doctors—just not for AD. The pattern is consistent with a 51% cohort no longer actively managing their AD—though we cannot fully rule out step-down care or non-prescription management not captured in claims. **The implication:** If most discontinuers exit rather than switch, the higher-leverage opportunities may be upstream (winning the naive patient) and retention (keeping the patients you win). --- ## The Upstream Threat: Extended Topical Pathways Before patients ever reach the systemic market, a growing cohort is being held in extended topical pathways. Novel non-steroidal topicals are delaying—and in some cases permanently preventing—systemic escalation. | Metric | Value | Notes | |--------|-------|-------| | Median delay to systemic | 285 days | For patients on novel topicals who eventually escalate | | Never escalate | 27% | At 24+ months observation | Of patients who start novel topicals and never escalate, 82% show no ongoing AD care—suggesting either successful control or complete disengagement. The systemic-eligible pool is shrinking before the competitive battle begins. ## HCP Philosophy Drives the Pathway The decision to escalate from topicals to systemics isn't purely clinical. HCPs cluster into distinct behavioral segments—and the same patient profile gets routed to different therapies depending on which dermatologist they see. | Segment | Share of HCPs | Share of Patients | Behavior | |---------|---------------|-------------------|----------| | Fast-Track (80%+ direct) | 33% | 28% | Skip topicals, go systemic | | Middle (40–80% direct) | 61% | 66% | Mixed approach | | Topical-First (<40% direct) | 6% | 6% | Extended topical trials | *Validation: Extended topical patients have higher RAF scores (sicker) than direct-to-systemic patients—ruling out the explanation that "Topical-First" HCPs simply have milder patients.* **The opportunity:** Segment field targeting by HCP escalation philosophy, not just volume. Fast-Track HCPs (33% of prescribers, 28% of patients) are high-value for first-line positioning. Topical-First HCPs may respond to different messaging. --- ## Strategic Implications Switch-focused positioning means competing for 12.8% of discontinuers—alongside every other biologic and JAKi. The market structure may favor a different approach: 1. **Win the Naive Patient** — First-line positioning matters more than switch positioning. The patient you capture first is the patient you keep. 2. **Build Your Own Retention Moat** — Dupixent's retention is built on efficacy and safety—but the result is that 80% of discontinuers exit entirely rather than switch. Build your own persistence engine. 3. **Target by HCP Philosophy** — Segment prescribers by escalation behavior, not just volume. Fast-Track HCPs are your first-line opportunity. 4. **Monitor the Topical Threat** — Novel topicals are delaying escalation by 9+ months and permanently removing 22–27% from the systemic-eligible pool. ### The Reframe **The data suggests the higher-leverage battleground may be upstream.** The data suggests a different playbook: most failures don't switch—they disappear. Win the naive patient, keep them longer, and build your own retention moat. That's where the leverage is. ### Methodology - Open medical + pharmacy claims on 330M+ lives - Cohort: L20.x diagnosis + systemic therapy, 2022–2025 - Discontinuation: 180-day gap in refills - Exit validation: Medical activity check at 6–12 months - HCP segmentation: Pathway analysis by NPI ### Limitations - Observational—cannot infer causation - Remission vs. disengagement indistinguishable - Recently launched drugs have limited observation - OTC and sample use not captured --- This is independent research. 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